Dictator's Handbook and the selectorate theory
The Dictator's Handbook is a book explaining the key rules for any politician or ruler to gain power and to stay in power, whether in a democracy, or a dictatorship. The topic in general is known as the selectorate theory, and has been explained quite well by CGP Grey in his video "The Rules for Rulers":
"The Rules for Rulers", a succinct explanation of the selectorate theory
In its simplest form, everything boils down to money. A ruler must extract the wealth from their nation in order to pay for the key supporters so that they may remain in power and continue extracting the wealth to perpetuate the cycle. Pretty much everything else is secondary.
Money flow in a democracy and in a dictatorship
If the wealth of the nation comes from natural resources, the well being of citizens is mostly an afterthought. If a nation lacks those resources however, the wealth comes from the productivity of the citizens via taxation. This means maximising revenue comes in form maximising productivity through education, keeping people healthy, etc.
Now let's have a look at how the political cycle starts with elections.
Elections and campaign donors
Elections in the US are won through money, at least most of the time. This seems to be also true in the case of the presidential race. This implies that if you want to be elected, you have to get more campaign money than your opponent. How do you do it? Through political donations and fundraising. That money can then be spent to sway the popular opinion and win the actual elections.
It is safe to say that the donors that put forward large donations most of the time will expect something out of it. While the politicians can't just give them money directly once elected, they can still pass laws and budgets to benefit their donors. Someone needs to build the roads, bridges, etc., so why not give that job to the company that helped you get elected?
The same goes for large voting blocks. If you need the votes of the farmers, you will give them farming subsidies. If you need the votes of the elderly, you will make sure they get their pensions, etc.
Based on that, it is fairly clear who actually matters to politicians...
The people that matter
The Dictator's Handbook taught us a few important lessons for any politician to take to heart. The people needed to get to power are not the same as those needed to stay in power. Money spent on the people that don't matter is money wasted. You need to keep your key supporters happy. If someone else comes along that offers the same key supporters a better deal, you will get kicked out.
So let's look at who the politicians try to appease once in office:
Whose opinion counts
More specifically, let's talk about this graph:
How likely a policy is to pass based on the support of the bottom 90% of people, vs the elites
This graph represents how likely a law is to pass based on the support of the bottom 90% of people, vs the support of the elites, and compared to the ideal representation. Whether the bottom 90% support the law completely or oppose it entirely, it has about a 30% chance of passing regardless. It's not the case with how the elites see it - if they like the law, it is more likely to pass, and if they hate it, it most likely won't pass.
This shows who the politicians really care about. Trying to expend the effort on appeasing the people that don't matter is essentially "money wasted on the irrelevant".
This is why banks are too big to jail, ISPs get laws that everyone hates, you have cotton, farming and dairy subsidies and so on. Those companies and industries matter to the politicians.
Conclusions
Provided:
- The Dictator's Handbook and the selectorate theory are valid models of human behaviour
- Money and donations help win elections
- The opinion of the bottom 90% of people have no impact on which policies are passed, while the opinions of the elites do
It is clear that the politicians care more about winning the support of the rich donors, rather than the general population. They then use their political donations to win the popular vote and go on to repay the favours they received.
